Trendfriend wrote:
20,980 (or thereabouts) - i.e. the 23.6% Fib did put up a good fight - but the selling is unrelenting.

I'm not sure anything other than sitting on my hands is the best option right now! can't risk short term trade up (short term technicals) or down (trend).

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ubrz06JIt89c9U86Czo=

looking at the next support levels here for the dow.
short term on the daily. gap support at 19649. and then 18213.....

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...+nZl0pItPwm2nCWO1yc=

A break below 18213....would open up the 15,000 area...multiple supports here from about 14700 to about 15370...
If we do go down to that area....it may well be the place we see another large relief rally imho...

lets see how we go...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Test of downtrend line flagged last week so far playing out on Dow and FTSE. There was a bit of a battle between the bulls and bears at the Dow trendline last night but the bears won as it was sold into the close. Futures then continued to drop:

Dow:


FTSE:

What suprised me is the media and some professionals saying that we have hit the bottom already ...Surely they must realise we have never been in a situation like this and to say that we have hit the bottom just due to a bounce of 20% seems a bit naive. The fact of the matter is so many companies have laid off staff and loads of companies are going bust...on top of that you have most companies missing out on targets set for this year which means profit warnings...So there is no way we have seen a true bottom yet as it’s way to early to call a bear market bottom considering normal bear markets last around 6-9 months and this ain’t no normal bear market so these media fools are just that...fools...
The world economy is hit hard and it’s never been this bad so to think this small correction is over just baffles me....
It’s like they want people to lose money by encouraging everyone to jump on board so as they can get out themselves...
Don’t trust the media or any so called professional.....
This is where people have to do there own research and come to a conclusion on there own...
I trust in charts so will go by what the charts says for the long term..and right now we are below the 200 day moving average and that must rise to even consider a bull market...on top of that I would like to see higher highs on the daily time frames and a break above the new down trend line which ain’t formed properly yet....as it’s really early...
We are in a crisis like never before so I doubt that we have seen a true bottom...
Don’t go rushing back in a hurry as things could get cheaper still....
I’ve only put around 20% of capital back in and that’s even day traded a lot for quick gains...and some are with companies that I feel may find a cure for this virus so really ain’t in for the long term yet....
It’s really hard to call a bottom and I don’t see one this early...
Take care and do your own research..
Remo

The rally we have have seen in the dow from 18200 to 22550....which is approx 20%
I think its perfectly normal...and its way to early to get bullish here...eve if we do see a 1,2,3 low....the Dow always pushes people to the limits...in terms of ones view and Analysis....

Looking here now at the last bear market in 2008/2009
dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...eZs+bxrnSDfDiXUW/aE=

the market dropped about 55/60% form just above 14,000 to about 6500 for the low....
in between that drop i can see plenty of 20% rallies....

So careful not to fall in love with the upside just yet....a bit of patience could really pay dividends....
in terms buying into this market lower down imho....

lets see how it goes...
Nice short trade today Libero... just being honest here...really don't think you should include me with those legendary names in your last post!
could well be a h&s top Long term....was deffo a retest of the high...22550 area and the 20 day ema line today....and it failed... (so far anyway)...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Looks alike down trend is about to resume...
The 123 low did not materialise yet...still in play.....
Once it goes below the 2 point(21000) then it cancels out...and would mean the lows would be hit...

longterm_view wrote:
I'm a rookie, so will gladly give the floor to my betters (remo, trendfriend, jackozy, wavesurfer et al - sorry if i missed anyone else out!), but it does look like a H&S over that line sure.

Stay Safe.

Libero / TF

It looks like there is a H&S forming on the 1hr chart. (On iPhone so cant post a chart)

After an uptrend, so in the correct place.

Neckline is about 21775 I believe.

Perhaps somebody can confirm?

Trendfriend wrote:
No worries man, I figured it was 22550

Meanwhile, the scalps came good - particularly at the end....




Still, must keep sight of the big picture too. Not sure if we saw the bottom, maybe - I know that bear markets take a while to form, but! this was the quickest sell-off in history, so it's bound to be the quickest snap back off the bottom too.

Either way, we'll know, when we'll know!

Stay Safe, and Keep Trading Safely too - my ol' ticker can't take too much of this ultra-short-nip-in-nip-out-trading....

Sorry Libero....i was on my phone...i meant 22550 i must have fat fingers!

Here's a chart to show what i mean.
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...2MxdMYYv6ZhqIuxxotI=

This has finally come down a tad today.....
I don't mind it going either way to be honest....if it goes up above 22550 for a 1,2,3 low as Remo has just posted below and above the 20 day ema line....then it just means i have been wrong....and 18200 may well have been the low after all...

I'll clean some egg off my face and then buy some stocks (for the longer term)

Having said that... could this still drop down for a lower low below 18200?
I think so....but wdik...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
That's a hell of a (trading) range TF!

I was in a "conf. call" and didn't close out my shorts (twice by the look of things!) - I know, I know place a stop - but I've been scalping manually it was just another one of these "must-learn" moments!

Let's see what the evening session brings!

If this is going down then it really needs to get a move on...
I think it should at the very least test that 18200 area again....imho

But at the moment it’s just effectively in no mans land.....
Between the 18200 low and 26550 high...

Let’s see
atb,
Trendfriend

Wow quite a rally...

With most of the world closed...and pandemic going on...
So it’s a perfect time for rally on the markets then!

Higher high/ 1,2,3 low around 550...and the key 20 day ema line at 519 today....
2 strong resistance levels....

If this is a bear market they should hold....
Still not trading this... which is not a bad idea seeing the moves....

Let’s see...(I think this will gap down by the time it opens imvho)

Atb
Trendfriend

thank goodness for the possibility!

(current shorts underwater - decent buffer, but annoyed with myself after a decent run scalping!)

did have a short ready at 22688 as well, but not sure what's happening!

Possible 123 low formation on the Dow....



Just have to show this even thou we are still in a bear market far as I’m concerned...

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...pyllqQ2kkMy7l1oSQ%3D

Well the moves in the 2 boxes highlighted here so similar its almost freaky....
the size of the candles are bigger on the second move down....otherwise its all very much the same...

Even the rebound has 4 four up days on both rebounds!

The candles with the arrows above are today's and the corresponding day on the last move....so a rally was possible....but i was thinking a big gap down and then rally back up....

Seeing as this has rallied from the open....maybe we will get a dump into the close??
Lets see....and if we follow the pattern....tomorrow should see a big gap down!

In any case this is not bullish imvho...and will come down in the days ahead... so lets see...

Keep well and stay safe folks...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Is that a fully formed H&S on the 5min dow?

Dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...EVbH4UsM9B3vfDnmo%3D

May well have been other resistance levels around the high for Thursday on the Dow....for me the 20 day ema line always acts like a trendline for any bearish indices/stocks trying to rally back....always watch that level as usually the fist sign of a bounce back...if it clears that feature....

The fact it has failed is significant imho...and that is a pretty low bar to to set....
Especially considering the huge relief bill passed on Friday....
The focus should now shift back to the news...both in terms of the medical perspective as well as the financial.... and that doesn't look great! more down imvho....

the ftse and the dax came off the 20 day ema line as well...pretty much perfectly as well.

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...jeKipfsuCGQTqrrGZ4s=

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...30KiG7xdbJ5L32jf0%3D

stay safe folks....and have a good week ahead
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Look how the dow finished yesterday bang on the 38.2 fib....and its coming down from that today so looks like its held and the bears will take control again...

AdeMcG wrote:
Hi Ade,

We're all old now!

(the charts I upload are normally big enough resolution wise to fill a 27" screen, but once uploaded, I do notice that they do shrink ).

Two quick ways (and happy to take advice on any other):

1. hold Ctrl + move forward with the wheel of your mouse.
2. Save the image or drag it to your desktop, and then open the chart (in the program of your choice) and magnify.

Hope this helps!

Yeah, horrible picture this - For ALL the people affected.

Here's hoping that we'll come out from this as a better and more responsible (global) society*


*but i doubt it.


Stay safe people.

Just have to look at this to see how bad America will be affected....and bear in mind USA is meant to be 3 weeks behind Europe...scary.
I can’t see how there market will go any higher....it’s crazy...

Also remember it’s Friday and you dont want to be long over the weekend ....

imgbb.com/

best way to post charts onto the forum post is by uploading to site above then use the link generated...its free..
Then you just add the link to the post as simple as copy and paste.
and the image will be shown directly onto post.

Hi Libero, how do you zoom in on your chart?
I guess I am getting old

15 minute action on the Dow...

21945 line looks interesting.

I had allocated 40% of my pension into funds in Gold and US UK tracker to catch this bounce and sold into the rally yesterday.
Still think we drift back down into the May/June time frame. I am guessing the Virus may have peaked by then and although the economy will have been brought to its knees the only way from there will be up even if slowly
Ironically Darwinism Survival of the fittest will apply to businesses whilst the social distancing and Herculean efforts of the NHS will cheat evolution and protect the old and vulnerable - that is the true value of money.

Stay safe - Any profit is just icing on the cake

TF, There is a high chance that DOW may (MAY) go down....
and some people are even saying oil could go to 10$....
I am not sure where we are heading... if I knew I would have invested last week and would been out earlier this week....

Lets wait and see, hope people like us and common man survives this times and come back as a stronger human.... stay safe... ta G

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BhN6+0UVHHqlWThxDPc=

can see 2 similar moves on the dow....highlighted in the 2 boxes...

This current big move down then rally....almost identical to what happened back in late Feb/Early March.
Was calling this market down then as well...not many thought it would go down so much....

I still very much think one more big down move to come....ending around the 10.000 area imho....
If it doesn't happen i will eat my socks!!
ok i won't actually eat my socks....but i'm confident this will go down from here...
While the first and second moves were quick....i think the next move will be slower....maybe with more rallies...it could take weeks....maybe months to get to the target of 10k....and will be harder to trade...

Can anyone give me any good reasons to be bullish on these market atm??
3 million people unemployed in 1 week!

things are so bad the Mexicans are stopping the Americans coming in!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52053656

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Steep downtrend line at 22760 tomorrow. Might need an 800+ pt stop to cover the gap if shorting.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wuLzkB9fyQ1MCooyquQ=

as we come into the close....watch 22625 area.....if this is still in a bear mode....the rally should stall around that area imho....

atb
trendfriend

Ronmould wrote:
Market and White house consensus was around 4million I believe?

I think the Fiscal and Monetary packages coming in will look to provide support to the afflicted; although helicopter money isn't going to replace a job (regular income et al). The idea is GDP next Quarter won't be as devastating.

The battle lines for 22020 range on the Dow, and 5755 on the FTSE are drawn; all the same, I think I'll take a break from scalps, for now.

Looks like the Fed is pumping this...
As you guys say... the news is all still bad.... :

They really want to hold this up....
How long will they be able to pump this??

Watch the numbers I posted yesterday....I think they should hold....let’s see..

Atb,
Trendfriend

Apologies for talking non-technicals but how can 3m unemployed in a week cause a rally? Were they expecting worse?!

the dow is battling on the 22020 lines...

AdeMcG wrote:
Imagine that.... Normally the fireworks were reserved for NFP or rates, but 3,283,000 souls out of work within a heart-beat is terribly sad.

(report attached)

key jobless figures due any moment...might make for a high volatile trading day

moved my stop up to break even now as going to enjoy the sunshine for a little while in the garden..

I’ve gone long from 21000 and my limit order is 200 points away..and stop is 100 points away....so looking at 200 points profit....
As that’s the size of rounded bottom roughly...well nearer 250

I was forced to get out of bed cos of ipad battery running low.....pain

theres a rounded bottom on the 1 min chart.....im going long at 21000 with 100 point stop...
just incase

remo wrote:
utter madness... unlimited QE, zero rates, fiscal package worth 10% of US GDP... crazy times.

And yes, the futures intra minute volatility is mad! Just be sure to charge your tablet Remo! it's running low!!!

Possible head and shoulder formation on hourly....needs a break below 20700,
Also strong support at 20400 ish area....
If a break below 20400 then I’d expect the down trend to resume.....
These are crazy markets and while I’m chatting moves of 100s of points takes place....lol

Jackozy wrote:
Good see you Jackozy! it has been ages!

Yep, this market is mad - anyone for a 1,000 stop?

How do you navigate this madness....

The drop over the last couple of weeks came in a single move so perhaps we ought to expect a relief rally followed by another wave down but these are remarkable times.

The steep downtrend line meets the 38.2% retracement level of the drop at c. 22540 om Monday. Not saying it'll happen like that but it's interesting to note. There are also gaps all over the place, most notably the one from the 23553 close from 11 March which is close to the 50% retracement (close being a relative term in days of 2000 point moves).

No trading for me, just observing.

Well, we have our answer - the rally is being sold into the close.

remo wrote:

I must say, I am really loving the updates and seeing how people are trading and do trade.

In these strange times, this is certainly breaking up the bad news.

Good job everyone.

remo wrote:
Please do continue! (not being lazy, but trading!)

I do hate trading alone - I've been working from home, but one of the screens is fixed on IG, and I've been nipping in and out. really stressful (but, first world problems).

Now, will the market sell-off into the close, or will they try to tease investors back in by rallying hard in the last hour like last night?

Well another strong day on the indices....they needed a good rally and not that surprising with the sort numbers the fed has come up with which are staggering....but it also shows the size of the problem and crisis imho....

So are we off to the races again then? are bulls back in charge?

Not yet...not by a long way imho...
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...YAgEl7cPLyV9P+K48F0=

This to me looks like it will test the 20 day ema line... around 20700....im not trading atm...if i was that would be the number to short...
If it breaks or gaps above...then shorts...then bears need to watch and need to wait for the level to break down again imho...
The way this moves this could hit that are today! or maybe tomorrow?

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ZVEia7zoO3RZ+gBY238=

same set up here...watch that 20 day ema line feature on the daily...during market hours..

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...huNjFX0CKeMaAWDvh6U=

here as well 20 day ema line...is the key imvho...

stay safe folks...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Perfect level for a short on a first attempt is coming...but it would require around 600 point stop....

22590 ish.....That’s the 38.2 fib level from the high to the low .....

This market has gone crazy and I suspect this is all just a bear trap so be really careful..

Great for trading in and out thou....but only for the crazy....

And if your wondering why I’m posting IG charts out.....cos I’m lying in bed being lazy and using an iPad....
Also IG Charts show full 24 hour moves so can be very handy....

Libero wrote:
lol....sorry,,,, did not know that.....
It all comes down to there fees, I’m not certain about that so worth looking into..

I use HL for my SIPP too - and for my ISA. They are, as Remo says, great for funds.
I've bought in a little today - just for scalping though...