Looking at the Fibonacci retracements:-
The Low of 15370 on 24th August is around the 38%(15315) retracement from 2011 or just below the 23% Fibonacci of 15547 all the way from 2009.

now that we see a finished above the Main Trend Line, i think Looking at the 200 day Moving average is important, which is currently 17213 & is 61.% back the other way from 24thAug & do need a move above this for me to be thinking this is not a dead cat bounce!

www.dropbox.com/s/uyqk82qoiokqwnj/DJ30%2...20TrendLine.png?dl=0

What are the implications that it has "pierced" the trend line?
Can this signal more downside to come?
Likely a relief rally ?

This looks like it closed back above the trendline today...
Weekly chart...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Close up shows a nice hammer on the weekly, lets see how it closes tomoorrow... it could a sign this will move higher...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI
Regards,
Trendfriend.

the dow has to finish and stay above the broken trend line for a few days to negate the break. The dow is way to volatile currently to place any real good trades. Ive not seen it this volatile for ages.
This period in the year is normally when the traders are away on holiday.go away in may and come back in September .

i was looking at this closely this morning, and i came up with chart below...(the chart does'nt show todays action)
Then i saw Remo's post and i wasnt brave enough to go against him and post it here... lol
This is the chart.. Monthly Dow...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9Q=&symbol=undefined

I was seeing that every year around july/aug and early sep, we get a big pullback...
You can see what i mean with the red lines in my chart...

I don't trade indices, just keep a eye on the dow, coz its the leader...
I was thinking this was just a Aug pullback/correction... although this is a stronger, and a bigger pullback than most years, its still only a Aug pullback.... its to early too say this is end of te bull run imho...
I'm thinking this will now rally into year end and even possibly make a new high....

Now i've posted this, watch it tank tomorrow...

Regards,
Trendfriend.

The main trend line was back tested yesterday perfectly. This spells trouble for indexes and lower prices will likely follow. Perfect trade was possible yesterday.

far away view


close up view...


Look how perfect that back test was yesterday This clear;y shows the power of technical at work

This looks like the start of a bear market and my first target is 13800(38.2fib) on the dow followed by 11000 (61.8fib)ultimate target(worst case). The only way this can be negated is if the dow can break above the trend line break and finish above it for a few days.

I'm a bit baffled - why is there no gap showing on the DOW today? I watched it open, and it was no more than about 15,850, falling immediately. It later tested the trend line and went to about 16,365 but never got as high as the previous days close at 16,460. So there should be 100 point gap, shouldn't there? Yet every chart I look at this morning doesn't show a gap. How come?

im gutted that i missed the perfect short, was busy ...dam

If it finishes above then yes... But i doubt that will happen as would require some amazing news
Richb wrote:

The dow actually tested the trend line break during market hours. Amazing

1 hour chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow60min24thaug2015.png

daily chart

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow24thaug2015.png

I would have thought so too Rich, but does "opening" below the trend line count? If it forms a huge hammer and closes above, as it looks like it might, then we're still in a bull market aren't we? We'll know soon enough!

If the Dow closed above it today doesn't that rescue it for now ?

Wouldn't the top of the gap be a better place to short? It's above the trend line.

A good place to go short now would be a back test of the major trend line that got broken area... I'm waiting for the markets to settle before placing trades on Dow...

Oh I agree. I was just observing the bounce.

Dow is getting smashed....,stay out of new longs now....wait for the dust to settle...All supports are breaking down...

Wow what a bounce off the 200 weekly MA.

pre-market has smashed through this level already so trade wont happen at that level.16333
The next level for strong support and attempt at first attempt is 15855. Again during market hours only. Use tight stops....This will be a risky trade as now the trend has clearly changed to down trend.This trade is trying to catch the bounce that always happens after a big down move. So short term trade.



remo wrote:

If the trend line from 2009 breaks down, the big if?? & do have to wait & see for conformation then...
I’m thinking that this could be the end of the bull trend all the way back from 2009??? & the main Elliot waves 1 to 5 that have all been completed???
If not, then one last main wave to go up & into next year???

For me if the trend line breaks, i can understand this 100 points stop, as the 38.2% fib (Elliot main Wave 3) which started from the low on 4th October 2011 (10404) to the high of (18351) 19th May2015, gives you around 15311, I think that 100 points swing & the 200 day moving average of currently 15270 on the weekly chart gives the Dow a support Level.

I think if we go below around 15300, then the trend has changed for me & we are starting correcting from all the way back from 2009.
Oh..We have broken through the ichimoku cloud, shown in blue on the chart.


www.dropbox.com/s/2im27g8ua5post8/DJ30%2...21stAug2015.png?dl=0

I had just looked on the monthly chart and stuck on the trendline and seen the same trade

Those doji showed why technicals are great. They were the warning signs for the correction on the dow.Hope some of you managed to get out at that time Atleast you heard it from here first


The dow is very close to its main uptrendline. Im going long on a first attempt during market hours at 16333. This is the main trend line for the up trend, so very important level.

weekly chart:


This chart shows the main trend line from far off. So should see why 16333 is important


Daily chart



This is a close up using daily.

im gonna go long on a first attempt basis at 16333 with a 100 points stop. Why 100 points?? Well im using 100 points as the markets are very volatile around major points , and this is as major as they come. I expect this to bounce on first attempt but if it fails then this will motor down even faster so hence why we have a stop loss.

ive been real busy of late with loads of projects (personal)and have not been on that much. Ill try and post more if i get some free time as markets have finally gone interesting Atleast this weeks share tips have some good trades in there and some not so good ones

Be safe and dont gamble too much

Worked out perfectly . This did bounce near the 18200 area during market hours on first attempt but second attempt it flew through the area. The doji showed us the way nicely



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thjune2015.png


remo wrote:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...9%20Weekly_May15.png

short term - dow needs to be trading below:

288 (Wavism) n 262/57 (Super wavism) for lower prices to follow 205 > 18063 > 17969.

dow continues to trade abv 257 n 288 then it still has chance to retest highs or higher 18405...

chop chop, lets see a re-energizer....

BTFD

Rgds WS

Dow got some doji this shows indecision so could be a possible double top ???
If the price goes below yesterdays low during market hours then possible signal to go short but be warned as 18200 is strong support so should bounce on first attempt.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow22ndmay2014.png

Hi rich
If it does go below the recent low then id expect it to head towards the 200 ma first. If that dont hold then the dow could head towards the main uptrendline.That trend line is the main important support for dow as long as it stays above that then bullish still.


Richb wrote:

Remo...

Lower lows and if it breaks that trend line are you expecting this is the start of the correction ?

Im gonna short the dow if it breaks 17579. If this level breaks then the dow can really drop so be careful.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow2ndapril2015.png

Still gripping my 630 tightly WS- might add on this dip 200pt stop a bit scary tho- might jump in and out like before.Thanks for the numbers

Dow motors on this is just the start....

expecting another pullback down towards the 18020/800 level, if gets below that then 951 n 916. imo the next 1 or 2 pullback to this level will be the last chance before the rockets fire off to the moon n beyond...

key levels for next week....

18290/88, 202, 103, 18054, 18020/00, 17991,951, 916, **840/820**

stops below 820 now and line in the sand.

Dyor - all imho.

WS

870/820 dow to watch on pullback, max 806,anything below that need to wait for dow to get abv... or spx 2066 in market hours.... would not like to see a pullback any deeper than that...

1-2, 1-? (2), - 3 boom

dont see a lower low....

here you go... the pullback came right on que, wrnt deeper than liked but still within range, any longs with stop at 580 you 'd be in....

you know i ilke buying into the rubber bands, so if we going higher and im expecting huge move, then a stop cleaner is to be expected...line in the sand 2x 2020 close below EOD price.

protect positions with stop. as one more low is is still poss, and fed week too...so take coin or lock in.

no 951 break - no higher, need to get abv n close.... expect another pullback




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...B%29March%202015.png

all the pullback are buying opportunities imo....

All the best... id keep that 630 buy all the way too the moon, protect it tho, if stop out then the chat from last week has all the dow numbers...

rgds WS

Hi WS hows it hangin? don't think thats a wave 3 as it set a lower low - sods - got in at 630 an all

Hello All....

for those that like to trade the indices... get ready for a huge move up imo.... wait for a pullback stop below 580,

watch 852/878 and 912 > 951, pullback abt 100pips or so 825/770 / 740 ..... then to the moon n beyond rriding wave 3 up....

swing short is done... time to get the swing long on ...

all imho... not intented be advise just my opinion and observations ....

will be back when dow is 18500 ++++ n beyond

good luck and all the best...

WS

Double top ? not with them GDP figures just out

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI
Potential double top??

17992...
If it breaks above, this should move a lot higher...
This is trading in a important area atm...

Regards,
Trendfriend

This has had a nice retrace now so im looking to go long at the next support level for a quick trade.
A good area to go long is at the 38.2 fib level which is at 17180 with a 40 point stop.This area also has horizontal support so worth a first attempt trade from here.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow15thdec2014.png

This is in a strong uptrend so its best to only take long positions on this. Obviously for new longs you have to wait for a retrace to happen. This is still in the santa rally stage....lol...
So going short will be a total gamble from current levels.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow30thdecember2014.png

Does anyone have any thoughts on this ones current direction? It's been a while.

I could be wrong, this is the bad boy Dow after all , but the more i look at this the more this looks like its getting ready for a pull back, it may be a small drop, but it should come down imho.
Daily Dow Chart, this is near the top of the rising channel, and note the bearish Div on the RSI.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

This is a close up of the daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

weekly shows the RSI div better.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

We have Bearish div, RSI at resistance, and a gap to fill, this should make make its way down imho.
The top of the channel is 17492 (tomorrow) rising daily, it could hit that level and make its way down.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

I'm already on board long and strong for the Santa Clause rally!

Good call BG.
Just be careful, move stop to profit, and dont get tempted to move it again imho.

Keep banking coin with Dow, as can come back and bite hard

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Anyone else Short on DOW?

Took a position at 17001.

Seems to have double topped at yesterdays high of 17066 with hourly closes below the MA(30) and MA(50) with no quick jump above.

I am looking for it to test the MA(200) around 16718 in the coming sessions.

Perfect test of the main trendline here. Needs to break above to confirm the pullback is over imho.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

A close up.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

I think it will do it tomorrow, as its broken above the 200day.

Regards,
Trendfriend

This had a nice pull back today, could be a sign the worst is over.
However, its still under this negative trendline on the 30 min chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

If it closes below 16050, it could accelerate the selling imho.

Regards,

Trendfriend.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29644214

Fears of global slow down.
This can be used to take this down as far as they like, with that issue.

Best to trade what we see, i think this could be some way to go imho.
The traders comments are interesting in that article.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Hi all,

lots of emotion and fear out there. Markets needed a healthy correction. S&P 500 has fallen 10%. IMO this retrace is probably reaching an exhaustion phase. When the bulls are in control perception is it cannot stop going higher, with bears it will never stop falling.

US will lead any recovery and small caps always lead the US markets. Not saying it is over, only that it needs a counter rally.

Let's see what happens over the next few days/week.

GL
F4T

and below bull/bear at 16020...and below super wavism at 16041 /.50... need to recover this to go higher....

btfd is a thing of the past short term. it's now STFR....


all imho

Trendfriend wrote:
Exactly TF.

The trouble is, the spread-betters aren't giving anyone a chance it seems - they've smacked futures to the tune of -100 (at the time of writing on the DOW) well before the open!

Let's hope for an opp to short the bounces.

I dont think so, this am was a great short opp imho.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

This has got loads to do.
WS, is also saying all system sell.

Be very carefull with longs imo. All suckers rallys ATM.

Short into strentgh for now, untill at the very least 16310 is cleared, or 16400+ tbh.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Nice hammer yesterday, Nazdaq down less, US smallcaps up.
I'll stick my neck out: IMO the rout is over. I expect markets to reverse this week or at least settle, maybe even today. It is finally time to buy stocks.